Climate variables used as response: - sfcWind,
tas, pr: original scale daily,
reduced scale: hourly - clt, rsds:
original scale monthly, reduced scale: daily
Training: All models are trained using ERA5 in reduced scale as observations. Training data perdiod: 1980 - 2015.
Validation Period: 2015-01-02 00:00:00 to 2023-12-30 23:00:00
Response variable to predict: upscaled ERA5 (daily or monthly)
Predictors variables: daily scale the variables
sfcWind, tas, pr,
tasmax, tasmin and psl and in a
monthly scale clt, rsdt,rsds ,
the month , hour, sun’s elevation & azimuth and the daily daylight
amount in seconds.
| Metric | xgboost | cnn | naive | lstm |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| mae | 0.40 | 0.37 | 0.42 | 0.38 |
| cor | 0.92 | 0.93 | 0.91 | 0.93 |
| ratio_of_sd | 0.91 | 0.96 | 0.91 | 0.96 |
| KGE | 0.88 | 0.92 | 0.88 | 0.92 |
| amplitude_mae | 0.85 | 0.64 | 0.82 | 0.68 |
| maximum_difference | 5.30 | 4.77 | 5.40 | 4.85 |
| sign_correlation | 0.70 | 0.70 | 0.71 | 0.72 |
| extreme_correlation | 0.59 | 0.68 | 0.59 | 0.62 |
| qqplot_mae | 0.10 | 0.06 | 0.10 | 0.04 |
| acf_mae | 0.09 | 0.05 | 0.08 | 0.05 |
| extremogram_mae | 0.05 | 0.02 | 0.06 | 0.03 |
Observations: cumulative distribution (Detrended QQ), dependency structure (ACF), and extremes (Extremogram, using 0.97 cut off).
Daily/Monthly gruped: Maximum hour histogram (only in daily variables), Amplitude distribution.
Hourly/Daily grouped: Mean profile per hour within days (or weeks witihin season)
In all plots, grey color represent the true ERA5 signal.